Why Trump's Next 4 Years Are Crucial To The Future of The GOP

The 2028 Presidential Election will be a referendum on the Trump adminstration. The GOP nominee, whether it be JD Vance, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump will have a huge impact on the GOP!

The President-Elect has enjoyed a popular vote win, the first he’s even done it, in the three elections he’s been in. He won 49.8% of the national popular vote, very close to a majority of voters. Kamala won 48.3% of the national popular vote, being the weakest performance for a Democrat nominee in the national popular since Hilary Clinton in 2016. She also suffered the biggest loss a Democrat has since 1988, only gathering 226 Electoral Votes, while Trump got 312 Electoral votes, the most electoral votes a Republican has gotten since 1988.

This victory was due to a huge shift in Hispanic voters, a minor shifts among Black and Asian voters, alongside a slight loss of white voters in his column. The President didn’t win a traditional landslide according to historical standards, but winning 312 Electoral Votes is a comfortable win considering the electorate is less white than it was 20/30 years ago, and the President has gone through two assassination attempts, multiple felony counts and trials, as well as +8 years of political smears against him. This, alongside getting +77 million votes, gives him a modern mandate to go through on his campaign promises. Here are some of the important demographics compared from 2020 to 2024:

2020 Demographics:

2024 Demographics:

In 2024, much more Republicans turned out than Democrats, Trump gained 2 points with Black Voters, and he gained an ASTOUNDING 23 points with Hispanic Voters, solidifying states like North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Florida in Republican territory. States like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia were somewhat close but Trump still picked off these states. This was due to a messaging against illegal immigration, inflation, bringing jobs back to America, and being a “common-sense” candidate, as he’s described himself. This appealed much more to voters than the Harris/Walz, which focused a lot more on appealing to voters who favored abortion, climate change, and other issues. Harris did try to steer the economic argument against Trump, but failed due to Biden’s poor record and approval rating, as well as the fact she said on The View, “I couldn’t think of a single thing I’d do different”, when being asked if she’d do anything different from President Biden.

Trump has built an America First coalition that shocked many political pundits (not me), and can bring the GOP to victory in many years to come. However, this hinges on his performance in office. My take is that he needs to go through on as much campaign promises and government change as humanly possible. DOGE, Mass Deportations, and economic growth will be the 3 biggest factors in determining his performance in office. If the economy improves, DOGE effectively and impartial cuts government spending, and Trump goes through with his immigration policies and MASS DEPORTATION plan, the electorate will reward his Presidency. However, the catch is they will only reward the candidate that receives his endorsement, which will most likely be JD Vance, his Vice-Presidential Pick and the Senator from Ohio.

Never in the history of the United States has the exact same electoral map occurred twice, which is BOTH good and bad news for JD Vance or any future GOP Candidate. For the sake of argument, I will choose JD Vance to be the nominee since he’s leading in most primary polls and would be the clear favorite to receive Trump’s endorsement as of now. If the Trump administration is popular, the GOP nominee will most certainly outperform Donald Trump and will more than likely get 319-219 in the Electoral College, picking off Maine, New Hampshire, or both due to the anti-war and economic promises that would be fulfilled in the Trump administration. If the Trump administration is not popular, the GOP nominee will underperform Donald Trump and more than likely lose the 2028 Election, EVEN if the nominee is Kamala Harris once again, who is speculated to possibly throw her hat in the ring for a 2028 Presidential Bid.

An expand battleground map would look something like this for 2028:

Yes, even New York and Illinois are in the tossup category for the expanded battleground map. Doesn’t mean the GOP will win them, but someone like JD Vance would run it up in rural areas and if Trump goes through with mass deportations, big city areas like New York City and Chicago will MASSIVELY reward the GOP for that platform. At this point, Trump has sured up the GOP the states of Florida, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. Albeit, they may be closer in a referendum election that punishes the Trump administration.

Trump must go through with as much campaign promises as possible. That will MAKE or BREAK the GOP in the 2028 Presidential Election. The promises of Mass Deportation, Economic Rebound, and Common Sense against massive government spending and the LGBTQ+ policies/culture will shape the GOP in the future and voters will either reward or punish them for their efforts.

Long time to go, but we will see if this holds up. The Midterms are also a huge factor in this Substack and could change the course of the electorate depending on the results. Topics stated in this article can apply to the midterms as well!